Four Factors That Could Scramble the 2022 Mid-Term Elections

If you think Democrats are due for a shellacking, here’s why you could be wrong.

The 2022 mid-term elections for Congress will be pivotal for America. If history is any guide, the Biden White House will lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly also the Senate. The mid-term electorate almost always is made up of more voters who fear the power of the party that controls the White House than those who support it. Current polls show that people who identify as Republicans are strongly motivated to vote this fall, while many Democrats — especially younger voters — are unenthusiastic, choosing to focus on the things Democrats promised but failed to deliver. The only times in recent history when this general tendency failed to hold was in 2002, when President George W. Bush’s Republicans gained 8 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate, and in 1998, when President Bill Clinton’s Democrats gained 5 in the House. Bush benefited from his post 9–11 bump in popularity and his drive to war with Iraq (sadly); Clinton benefited from the public’s greater dislike of Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich and his drive to impeach the president for his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

History is only a guide, not a guarantee. And as the 1998 and 2002 midterms show, sometimes current events cause voters to prioritize different things and opt to support the party in power in the White House. As the fall elections approach, there are four…